Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Record Low With Weeks Left in Melting Season

(Martin Bureau/AFP/Getty Images)

Arctic sea ice is melting faster than climate models projected, already shrinking to a record minimum with several more weeks of this year’s melting season, according to scientists on both sides of the Atlantic.

“The sea ice area went below the sea ice area in 2007 around Aug. 20,” said Ola Johannessen , founding director of the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, an independent non-profit research foundation affiliated with the University of Bergen, Norway, that conducts basic and applied environmental and climate research.

“In general, the ice area and extent has consistently decreased since 1960 and the reason is mainly the increase of CO2,” he said.

According to a report released today by U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice area has shrunk to 1.58 million square miles, breaking the previous minimum of 1.61 million square miles, set in 2007.

What Will This Mean for the World?

There will be both positive and negative effects from the record melting, Johannessen said.

On the positive side, with more water ice-free, the amount of shipping through the Northern Sea Route and the North West Passage, even directly across the Arctic Ocean, will increase.

There could also be increased oil production, since the Arctic holds 32 percent of the world’s untapped oil  and gas reserves. Russia has put its first oil rig in the Arctic into operation, but it became a target of environmentalists last week when Greenpeace activists scaled it in protest.

But according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the loss of sea could accelerate global warming trends.

Arctic sea ice keeps the polar region cold and helps to moderate global climate. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic decrease in the thickness and extent of ice in the arctic.

“Melting of the Arctic is bad for climate change and fisheries,” Johannessen said.  Loss of sea ice will impact “ocean and weather patterns, and there will be increased teleconnection between high and low latitudes affecting the monsoon system in Asia and other parts of the world.”

Melt Also Self-Reinforcing

There’s no turning back, scientists agree.  Since sea ice is white, it reflects 80 percent of the sunlight hitting it back back into space; the less of it is the more heat the darker Arctic will absorb. Instead of reflecting 80 percent, it will absorb 90 percent of the sunlight,  which will accelerate the thaw, scientists say. Several studies have found the Arctic could be ice free by 2040 or sooner.

As the Arctic melts, the ocean around it becomes warmer, leading to more loss of sea ice, and therefore a rise in sea levels.  Scientists say this sea level rise is impossible to avoid.

The Arctic Ocean has been covered with ice for more than 2.5 million years. During interglacial periods like the current one, ice melts in the summer and thaws in the winter.  Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum seasonal extent in March and shrinks through spring and summer to a minimum extent in September.

Throughout human civilization, this melting and freezing Arctic sea ice has been more or less consistent. However,what is being experienced now is unprecedented, scientists say.

Arctic Sea Ice data:

Nansen Centre — http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

National Snow and Ice Data Center– http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Source : abcnews[dot]go[dot]com

2012 Hurricane Season Now Forecast Above Normal

  Hurricane Ernesto approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.  Image credit: NOAA.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, updating its forecast, said today that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be above average.

The center said it was now predicting there would be 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 of them hurricanes.  It raised the numbers partly because of the number of storms we have already seen this year.

“This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date,” said NOAA in a statement.  “The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent.”

Already, the Atlantic has seen tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie and Florence, and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto.

Based on that, the Climate Prediction Center said it now anticipates 12 to 17 storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, it is predicted we will see 5-8 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), 2-3 of which could be major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are Category 3, 4, or 5 and have winds of at least 111 mph.

According to NOAA, the average Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The Climate Prediction Center is increasing the number of expected storms due to wind patterns and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, according to Gerry Bell, the center’s lead forecaster.

“These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season,” Bell said.

At the same time, forecasters predict that an El Niño — a giant patch of unusually warm water in the equatorial Pacific that affects global weather patterns — will develop in August or September.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development,” Bell said. “However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season.”

NOAA’s National Weather Service said regardless of predictions, it is important to take the proper steps to be ready for severe weather.

For more information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit www.ready.gov.

Source : abcnews[dot]go[dot]com